About

Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Sunday, 20 August 2017

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning August 21


Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2426, -0.65%
Bearish
Bearish
Nifty
9837, 1.30%
Neutral **
Bullish
China Shanghai Index
3269, 1.88%
Bullish
Bullish
Gold
1292, -0.19%
Neutral
Neutral
WTIC Crude
48.66, -0.33%
Neutral
Neutral
Copper
2.94, 0.94%
Bullish
Bullish
Baltic Dry Index
1247, 14.19%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.1760, -0.51%
Bearish
Bearish
Dollar/Yen
109.18, 0.01%
Neutral
Neutral
Dow Transports
9095, -1.13%
Bearish
Bearish
High Yield (ETF)
36.81, 0.04%
Neutral
Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.19%, 0.23%
Neutral
Neutral
Nyse Summation Index
242, -47.50%
Bearish
Neutral
US Vix
14.26, -8.06%
Bullish
Bullish
Skew
129
Neutral
Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500
2466, Below
Bearish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2450, Below
Bearish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2347, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
9958, Below
Neutral
Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty
9791, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
9028, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
14.57, -4.11%
Neutral
Bullish
Dollar/Rupee
64.07, -0.01%
Neutral
Neutral


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty


Bullish Indications
5

8

Bearish Indications
6
4

Outlook
Bearish
Bearish

Observation
The S and P 500 was down and the Nifty bounced last week. Indicators are bearish.
The market is topping. Time to tighten those stops.


On the Horizon
Euro Zone – German ZEW sentiment, Draghi speeches, German PMI, German IFO business climate index, German GDP, UK – GDP, Canada – Retail sales, U.S – Home sales, Oil inventories, Durable goods, Yellen speech






*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index


Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com


**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral




stock market signals august 21

The S and P 500 fell and the Nifty bounced slightly last week. Signals are mixed for the upcoming week. Past and future FED rate hikes are yet to be priced in and sentiment indicators are finally shifting from complacency. Transports and the Yen are flashing warning signs. The markets are still trading at 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. The critical levels to watch are 2435 (up) and 2415 (down) on the S & P and 9900 (up) and 9750 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

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My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.