About

Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Saturday, 14 October 2017

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning October 16

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2553, 0.15%
Neutral
Neutral
Nifty
10168, 1.88%
Neutral **
Bullish
China Shanghai Index
3391, 1.24%
Bullish
Bullish
Gold
1305, 2.33%
Bullish
Bullish
WTIC Crude
51.45, 4.38%
Bullish
Bullish
Copper
3.13, 3.45%
Bullish
Bullish
Baltic Dry Index
1458, 5.50%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.1821, 0.77%
Bullish
Bullish
Dollar/Yen
111.87, -0.67%
Bearish
Bearish
Dow Transports
9936, 0.50%
Bullish
Bullish
High Yield (ETF)
37.18, 0.00%
Neutral
Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.27%, -3.80%
Bullish
Bullish
Nyse Summation Index
928, 1.81%
Bullish
Neutral
US Vix
9.61, -0.41%
Neutral
Neutral
Skew
138
Neutral
Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500
2526, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2488, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2403, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
9977, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
9945, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
9362, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
11.26, 1.30%
Neutral
Bearish
Dollar/Rupee
64.66, -1.19%
Neutral
Bullish


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
12

13
Bearish Indications
1
2
Outlook
Bullish
Bullish
Observation
The S and P 500 and the Nifty made new highs last week. Indicators are bullish.
The market is topping. Time to tighten those stops.
On the Horizon
China – GDP, Industrial production, New Zealand – CPI, Australia - Employment data, UK – CPI, Employment data, Retail sales, Euro zone – CPI, German ZEW economic sentiment data, U.S –Oil inventories, Existing home sales, Canada – CPI, Retail sales
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

stock market signals october 16


The S and P 500 and the Nifty made new highs last week. Signals are bullish for the upcoming week. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in and sentiment indicators are back in complacency mode. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. The critical levels to watch are 2565 (up) and 2545(down) on the S & P and 10250 (up) and 10100 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback. 

Thursday, 12 October 2017

Daily Market Insight

Here is your daily insight from global financial markets. Today's post is an aggregate of interesting news and views form the Stock, FOREX, Commodity markets and the Economy:



Tuesday, 10 October 2017

Daily Market Insight

Here is your daily insight from global financial markets. Today's post is an aggregate of interesting news and views form the Stock, FOREX, Commodity markets and the Economy:

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My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.